Initial regime dependancy on forecast skill

Score:
ACC for Z500
RMSE for Z500
SPREAD for Z500
RPSS for Z500

Areas:
Euro-Atlantic
East Asia
Pacific
North Pole
Australia&New Zealand
South America

Seasons:
DJF
NDJFM
JJA
JJAS

Number of clusters:
4
5

Centres:
TIGGE&GEFSs
GEFSs

predicted frequency of regimes

reliability diagram

reliability diagram (only regression lines)

Brier Skill Score

Brier Score and Brier Skill Score ("stamp" map)