Brier Skill Score for probabilistic regime forecasts

Verification based on:
initial dates
valid dates

Skill dependency upon:
initial regime
forecast regime

Centres:
TIGGE&GEFSs
GEFS&GEFS_TIGGE
all GEFSs

BSref:
trans. matrix.-based
clim. freq.-based
Persistence

Areas:
Euro-Atlantic
East Asia
Pacific
North Pole
Australia&New Zealand
South America

Seasons:
DJF
NDJFM
JJA
JJAS
MJJAS

Number of clusters:
4
5


predicted frequency of regimes

reliability diagram

reliability diagram (only regression lines)

dependency upon initial MJO phases (similar plots)

BS and BSS ("stamp" map)

BS and BSS ("stamp" map, initial MJO dependency)