Reliability diagram for regime forecasts

No. of categories (bins):
5
10 (12 for GEFS)

Areas:
Euro-Atlantic
East Asia
Pacific
North Pole
Australia&New Zealand
South America

Seasons:
DJF
NDJFM
JJA
JJAS
MJJAS

Number of clusters:
4
5

Map type:
   reliability regression lines
normal realiability diagram
reliability diagram with
    the other obs. regimes

Centres:
CMC (+1-15days)
ECMWF (+1-15days)
JMA (+1-9days)
NCEP (+1-15days)
UKMO (+1-15days)
GEFS refcst (+1-16days, TIGGE)
GEFS refcst (+1-16days, 20C)
GEFS refcst (+1-16days, 21C)
GEFS refcst (+1-16days, all)

Forecast days:
+1-3 days
+4-6 days
+7-9 days
+10-12 days
+13-15 days

+1 days
+2 days
+3 days
+4 days
+5 days
+6 days
+7 days
+8 days
+9 days
+10 days
+11 days
+12 days
+13 days
+14 days
+15 days
+16 days

predicted frequency of regimes

Brier score and Brier Skill Score