Mean Brier Skill Score for probabilistic regime forecasts

Forecast ranges:
Day0-15
Day1-5
Day6-10
Day11-15

Areas:
Euro-Atlantic
East Asia
Pacific
North Pole
Australia&New Zealand
South America

Seasons:
NDJFM
JJAS
Number of clusters:
4
5


predicted frequency of regimes

reliability diagram

reliability diagram (only regression lines)

BS and BSScore ("stamp" map)

BS and BSScore ("stamp" map, initial MJO dependency)
MJO phase dependency on Prob. skill