Brier Skill Score for probabilistic regime forecasts

Verification based on:
initial dates
valid dates

Skill dependency upon:
initial regime
forecast regime

Centres:
TIGGE&GEFSs
GEFSs

BSref:
trans. matrix.-based
clim. freq.-based

Areas:
Euro-Atlantic
East Asia
Pacific
North Pole
Australia&New Zealand
South America

Seasons:
DJF
NDJFM
JJA
JJAS
MJJAS

Number of clusters:
4
5

MJO phase:
inactive
all
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8


predicted frequency of regimes

reliability diagram

reliability diagram (only regression lines)

BS and BSScore ("stamp" map)

BS and BSScore ("stamp" map, initial MJO dependency)
MJO phase dependency on mean Prob. skill